Game Day

Finally, it's here.

After weeks (for some people) of waiting, it's Game Day. All day long I've felt different. I know that sounds weird, but it's true. Going out to get my wristband this morning, knowing this was my last Duke-Carolina game in Cameron as a student (and given how hard it is to get tickets, possibly my last one ever), was a weird feeling. In a way, I actually feel kind of antsy, ready for it to be 9 o'clock when the game starts. And if I feel like this, imagine what it must be like for the guys who are actually playing.

Anyway, I promised actual basketball analysis today, so here goes:

People are looking at this game as a match-up of UNC's unstoppable offense vs. Duke's impenetrable defense. But that's selling UNC's defense and Duke's offense a little bit short. According to Ken Pomeroy's pace-adjusted statistics, Duke is the best defensive team in the nation, allowing 80.5 points per 100 possessions. But Carolina is second, just behind Duke (80.6 points per 100 possesssions). And though Carolina's offense is the 7th most efficient in the country (121.0 points per 100 possessions), Duke's offense is 49th at 111.9 points per 100 possessions. So it's not that Carolina is simply better on offense than the teams they play, they are simply better than most teams they play in both phases.

Where the teams are most different is in pace: UNC plays the 9th fastest in the country; Duke plays 252nd fastest. The Tar Heels thrive on a fast pace because, according to Pomeroy, they win when they force turnovers and grab offensive boards. By racing up-court and taking the first good shot, they give Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright a chance to clean up on the offensive boards. And other teams don't have the fast, skilled guard play to play at UNC's pace, which forces turnovers.

Essentially, the key to the game is UNC's offensive rebounding. If Duke allows UNC to grab offensive boards, the Blue Devils aren't going to win. When Duke has lost this season, it hasn't been because of its offense. In each of the Blue Devils' losses, they allowed at least 99.8 points per 100 possessions. In their most recent losses (to Virginia and Florida State) they allowed about 105 points per 100 possessions. In wins, they only allowed 100 points per 100 possessions twice (and each time, they were close to the threshold). Offensive rebounds give a team multiple chances to score on a possession, which drives up their points per possession.

Here's my prediction: Since Roy Williams got to UNC, the average margin of victory has been 3.5 points. There's no reason to believe that will change this year. If Duke isn't going to get blown out, the score will be in the high 60s or low 70s--a pace that favors the Blue Devils. And if the game is played at Duke's slow pace, then anything can happen. Add in a little Cameron Indoor Magic (paging Dave McClure), and you're looking at a Blue Devil win.

Here goes nothing: Duke wins, 73-72

Six hours left...