Wednesday, February 7, 2007

Game Day

Finally, it's here.

After weeks (for some people) of waiting, it's Game Day. All day long I've felt different. I know that sounds weird, but it's true. Going out to get my wristband this morning, knowing this was my last Duke-Carolina game in Cameron as a student (and given how hard it is to get tickets, possibly my last one ever), was a weird feeling. In a way, I actually feel kind of antsy, ready for it to be 9 o'clock when the game starts. And if I feel like this, imagine what it must be like for the guys who are actually playing.

Anyway, I promised actual basketball analysis today, so here goes:

People are looking at this game as a match-up of UNC's unstoppable offense vs. Duke's impenetrable defense. But that's selling UNC's defense and Duke's offense a little bit short. According to Ken Pomeroy's pace-adjusted statistics, Duke is the best defensive team in the nation, allowing 80.5 points per 100 possessions. But Carolina is second, just behind Duke (80.6 points per 100 possesssions). And though Carolina's offense is the 7th most efficient in the country (121.0 points per 100 possessions), Duke's offense is 49th at 111.9 points per 100 possessions. So it's not that Carolina is simply better on offense than the teams they play, they are simply better than most teams they play in both phases.

Where the teams are most different is in pace: UNC plays the 9th fastest in the country; Duke plays 252nd fastest. The Tar Heels thrive on a fast pace because, according to Pomeroy, they win when they force turnovers and grab offensive boards. By racing up-court and taking the first good shot, they give Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright a chance to clean up on the offensive boards. And other teams don't have the fast, skilled guard play to play at UNC's pace, which forces turnovers.

Essentially, the key to the game is UNC's offensive rebounding. If Duke allows UNC to grab offensive boards, the Blue Devils aren't going to win. When Duke has lost this season, it hasn't been because of its offense. In each of the Blue Devils' losses, they allowed at least 99.8 points per 100 possessions. In their most recent losses (to Virginia and Florida State) they allowed about 105 points per 100 possessions. In wins, they only allowed 100 points per 100 possessions twice (and each time, they were close to the threshold). Offensive rebounds give a team multiple chances to score on a possession, which drives up their points per possession.

Here's my prediction: Since Roy Williams got to UNC, the average margin of victory has been 3.5 points. There's no reason to believe that will change this year. If Duke isn't going to get blown out, the score will be in the high 60s or low 70s--a pace that favors the Blue Devils. And if the game is played at Duke's slow pace, then anything can happen. Add in a little Cameron Indoor Magic (paging Dave McClure), and you're looking at a Blue Devil win.

Here goes nothing: Duke wins, 73-72

Six hours left...

T-minus 19 hours (or something like that)...

At some schools (Carolina, Maryland) they like to celebrate big games by flipping over cars, lighting things on fire and getting tear-gassed and beaten by cops. I think that's really awesome. Seriously, I totally respect that. Though I have never experienced one personally, I think riots look like a lot of fun. Especially the looting. I hope to be involved in a riot one day.

Unfortunately, we don't do that at Duke. We like to leave the rioting to kids that go to state schools. Maybe we're too superior or have a sense of entitlement or something. Whatever. Anyway, instead of rioting, we have a tightly controlled celebration protocol. Instead of indiscriminately burning things in the middle of the street and getting tear-gassed, we have an agreement with the fire department. Basically, we get to have a Riot Lite.

Today, Duke's Executive Vice President and Student Government President took out a full page ad in The Chronicle, stating the "Bonfire Guidelines."

Here's a few excerpts from the letter said:

"We want to remind you about safety guidelines for basketball bonfires at Duke. Two years ago, the Durham Fire Marshal revoked permits following a bonfire that, in his view, had gotten out of control...

2. The bonfire must be contained within a 40-foot marked boundary and everyoen should remain outside the boundary.

3. Benches [we burn these huge wooden benches that fraternities build, partly for sitting and partly for burning] should be stacked horizontally.... Only two benches can be in the fire at one time. Do not put dorm furniture in the bonfire.

4. Periodically, the bonfire must burn down to a safe height...

6. Do not sit or stand on building roofs...

8. The use of any accelerant is prohibited...

Celebrating basketball victories with a bonfire is a Duke tradition. Follow these basic safety rules so we can maintain this tradition for years to come."

I know what you're saying right now, so I'll just point you to FACT #1 from my first post: Duke kids are giant dorks. Yeah, this whole bonfire thing is totally lame, especially the fact that select administrators stand on the Quad and watch the whole thing to make sure we're following the rules. And get this: They call themselves "The A Team." I keep waiting for Mr. T to tell me to stop burning my desk and adding three benches to the fire. WHEN Duke wins tomorrow night, I'm definitely burning my desk and the little hutch that comes with it. AND I'm going to sit on a roof pouring down lighter fluid into the fire. You just try to stop me, Mr. T.

You'll notice that I said WHEN Duke wins, not IF Duke wins. This is despite the fact that I asked a decent number of at least partially well-informed Duke fans who they thought would win and every single one of them (except two) said they thought UNC would win. And one of the two who said Duke was going to win said it while he was sitting outside in 36-degree weather waiting to get in to the game, and he actually said "Duke had better win if I'm going to sit outside and freeze to watch it." So I'm not sure if that counts.

Anyway, I did my own irreverent take on the Duke-Carolina game for The Chronicle Tuesday, listing six (ridiculous) reasons that Duke would win. Some moron Carolina fan apparently thought I was serious. You can see what he thought in the comments section. As a warning, it's not grammatically correct, so you might struggle a little bit unless you are fluent in Moron Carolina Fan-ese.

But I'll do that prediction one better. I am, right this very moment at 1:14 a.m. the night before the game, going to predict each of the major events that will DEFINE the Duke-Carolina game tomorrow. So without further ado, here it goes:

FIRST HALF

19:58, UNC 0, Duke 0: On the opening tip, Brandan Wright gets his braces tangled in Lance Thomas's jersey. One of the brackets is pulled away from his tooth, and the wire begins digging into his gums. Wright is prepared to play on, but his mother races out of the stands, declaring that she paid good money to get that mouth fixed and she's not about to see it ruined for a stupid basketball game. Brandan tries to explain to her that it's not just a stupid basketball game, that it's a really big basketball game, but she won't have any of that. She proceeds to grab him by his (overly-large) ear and drag him out of the stadium. Predictably, the Cameron Crazies chant "Brace-Faced Mamma's Boy!" Dick Vitale says something about each of them having an SAT score greater than 1463 or something. Dan Schulman shakes his head.

15:37, UNC 12, Duke 3: During the first TV timeout, Carolina guard Ty Lawson (who has scored 10 of his team's first 12 points by blowing past Greg Paulus and scoring) sees a fan in the upper deck waving what looks like a cheeseburger. Not one to turn down a cheeseburger, Lawson races up the steps looking for the cheeseburger, but the fan turns around and runs out of the seating bowl. Lawson chases him, but the fan manages to leave the stadium before the chubby point guard catches up. He tries to re-enter the building, but the Durham Fire Marshal tells him the building has reached capacity. When he tries to explain that he's actually playing in the game, the fire marshal looks at the 5-foot-11 Lawson and says, "Yeah, right. And I'm Michael Jordan. Good try."

3:57, UNC 36, Duke 24: All game, the Cameron Crazies have been riding Tyler Hansbrough for several reasons:
1. His name is an anagram for "He shor 'n ugly brat"
2. He travels every time he touches the ball.
3. He gets pedicures.
4. His tiny head makes him look like a dinosaur.
So Hansbrough is not happy about all that, and he's beginning to get really angry. Still, he's scored 15 points and grabbed 7 rebounds so far, so it hasn't affect his game. Then, he throws down a huge dunk over Brian Zoubek and goes into one of his patented over celebrations. But in doing so he pulls a muscle in his chest (or gets an ulcer or an aneurism or something) and falls down on the court. He is carried off, but he won't return. Zoubek (0 points, 4 fouls) gets a standing ovation. One enterprising fan starts a petition to get his number retired.
Vitale says something about him having an SAT score greater than 1463 or something. Schulman shakes his head.

SECOND HALF

12:42, UNC 42, Duke 42: With Hansbrough, Lawson and Wright out of the game, Duke has roared back in the second half. But Roy Williams, wearing his hideous Carolina blue blazer, is just about to execute his patented "remove all of the players in the game and insert and entirely new line-up just to show the players you have out there exactly how mad you are at them," which he seems to do once a game. All of a sudden, a homeless guy walks into the stadium, slugs Roy-Will and takes his jacket back. Roy-Will is out cold, and the mass substitution never happens. Meanwhile, the homeless guy gets a standing ovation and is showered with cash by the fans at the game. As he walks out of the stadium clutching his spoils, he throws the jacket in the trash. He says, "Now that I have a few bucks in my pocket, I don't have to wear that homeless man jacket any more." Vitale says something about the homeless guy getting above a 1463 on his SAT. Schulman shakes his head.

0:57, DUKE 58, UNC 58. The game has gone back and forth all the way to the end. A couple of seconds ago, Josh McRoberts received an alley-oop pass from Paulus and slammed it home to tie the game. The Cameron Crazies are going bonkers. As McRoberts runs upcourt doing his patented McPoint, he accidentally pokes Reyshawn Terry in the eye. Terry goes down, and has to come out of the game. Vitale thinks that was "awesome, baby!"

0:29, DUKE 58, UNC 58. Duke gets a huge stop when Bobby Frasor, driving unimpeded to the basket, slips on the puddle of sweat dripped onto the court by Vitale (who will later explain that it was "hot in there, baby!"). He falls and is called for traveling by referee Teddy Valentine.

0:00, DUKE 60, UNC 58. With 0.6 seconds left on the clock, Duke gets a bucket when Gerald Henderson starts wheezing, faking an asthma attack. Henderson's best buddy Wayne Ellington rushes to his rescue, but Henderson just laughs at him. Meanwhile, Ellington's man, DeMarcus Nelson, has slipped to the basket, where he gets an alley-oop pass from Paulus. He flushes it down as time expires, and Duke wins. I later burn my desk and the hutch above it, get arrested but decide it was totally worth it.

When it happens exactly like that tomorrow night, remember where you heard it first.

Tomorrow, a REAL score prediction (maybe with actual basketball analysis thrown in there...), and my favorite Duke-Carolina moments of the three years that I've been going to the game. Also, XM radio: broadcasting live from what has to be at least the 8th-nicest city on the I-85 corridor, Durham, starting Wednesday at 6 a.m. on XM 144.

Monday, February 5, 2007

Personal checks and rushing the court

Like I was saying in the last post, this weekend was personal checks. I made mine (I'm in tent #61, if you're looking for full disclosure), so I'm going to the game on Wednesday.

The scene in K-ville totally lived up to expectations despite the fact that it was like 25 degrees outside. On Friday night, I saw one kid randomly wearing a Scooby-Do costume and just walking around. Then, this other kid was chugging out of a handle of vodka and breathing on a lighter. It looked like a flame-thrower. It also looked really safe, especially the part about mixing vodka and fire. He had this whole group of people gathered around him, like 10 or 15 deep, so I couldn't get that close. Not that I really wanted to. I'm flammable, and I didn't want my brass monkey (malt liquor and orange juice) to get warm. Actually, I'm not entirely sure this happened at all, except I did see the flames, and I heard people saying that a guy made them by chugging vodka and then breathing on a lighter. So the story's at least half true.

The other cool part about K-ville is how it's totally lawless. There were cops just standing there watching a girl who literally looked like she was 15 vomiting into a trash can. At one point, the line at the women's room got too long, so a bunch of girls just walked into the men's room, which was awkward. There are probably over 100 trash cans set up around K-ville, but no one actually throws their trash or beer cans away. They just kind of throw everything on the ground. The really environmentally-conscious people throw their trash into the bushes, where they can't see it anymore, so it's not littering.

Saturday morning, I had to spend some time in the tent (see: the one person in the tent at all times rule), so I went out there at 8 a.m. The ground was all muddy (actually the mud had frozen over, since it was so cold) and there were beer cans, bottles and broken glass all over the place. It looked like a war zone. In the bathroom, there was mud (I think) smeared all over one of the walls and the floor was caked with mud (again, I think). I took a nap until like 11, and when I woke up, everything was clean again. Some guy was talking on the phone about how the mess says a lot about Duke students, how we have this sense of entitlement and feel like we can just throw our trash on the ground and not clean anything up. In our defense, most of us were drunk. Plus, if they have people that just come around and clean up after us, then there's no incentive to throw stuff away. I mean, why rob those clean-up guys of a chance to make a buck?

Saturday night was more of the same, except there were a lot of TV networks and individual people with video cameras. Being a Cameron Crazie is like being a part of a brand. Seriously. I can't go to a basketball game, or sit with my friends in K-ville, without a camera being stuck in my face. When I was a freshman, it was fun and cool to be on TV, but now it just feels like I'm being exploited. Honestly, the loudest some people get at the games in Cameron is when a TV camera is pointed in their general direction. I'm not saying they're wrong, I'm just saying they look stupid. So I try to avoid being on TV/the subject of someone's documentary on the Cameron Crazies.

Anyway, on Saturday night, I was carrying around this toy light saber with me because I found it on campus and thought it was funny. A guy with a camera came up to me.

"Is that a light saber?" he asked.

"Yes," I replied.

"Why do you have it?" he asked, pointing his camera at me.

"Because I found it, and I thought it was funny, and I liked it, so I brought it out here," I replied.

"So if you miss a check, and they try to send you to the back of the line, will you use it to cut someone's head off?" he asked.

"No," I said. "I'm not going to do that. This isn't a real light saber, anyway, so I can't do that. It's just a toy."

He turned off his camera and walked away.

Oh yeah, the game on Sunday. Great game. Those Colts are all right. And Peyton Manning, that guy's pretty good. If, if you like six-five, 230-pound quarterbacks. Laser, rocket arms.

As for the Duke-FSU game, don't worry about it. I, for one, think it was nice of Duke to give Florida State a chance to win in Cameron. Seriously, though, the strange thing about covering Duke (especially on the road) is watching the way other teams and their fan bases celebrate when they beat Duke. I have been present for three court-rushing scenes in three years covering Duke on the road (at Maryland two years ago, Florida State last year and Virginia last week). Really, the only one that made sense was the Florida State game last year, when Duke was the No. 1 team in the country and hadn't lost an ACC game all season. When Duke's having a down year (5-4 in the conference is a down year), it really just doesn't make sense for fans to freak out like that. I wonder if every other top school (Kentucky, Indiana, UConn and, yes, Carolina) gets this same court-rushing treatment when they lose during a down year. Part of me thinks it's only Duke.

Anyway, the reason I bring it up is that after the Duke-FSU game, the Florida State players rushed on to the court and a couple of them, I'm not going to name names but one of them was a star who scored 37 points in Cameron last year and his name rhymes with Pal Hornton, started woofing at the student section and popping their jerseys. Come on guys, you're taunting Duke students. The only heavy lifting most of us do is our calculus books. We know you're better than us at basketball. That's why you're on the floor and we're not. You stay classy, Tallahassee.

(I can't believe that never caught on. I mean it rhymes and everything. Plus, it's totally ironic if you've ever been to Tallahassee. Miserable place. Major highlights include that seedy Days Inn on West Tennessee Street, the feeling that wherever you are you might get shot, and that girl in the cowboy hat that was in Maxim.)

On an entirely serious note, it was great to see J.J. Redick's jersey retirement (the guy is basically the reason I became a Duke fan after 17 years rooting for Maryland). It was one of those times (when they retire the jersey of the ACC's all-time leading scorer and Grant Hill randomly shows up to watch) that I remembered again how lucky I've been to be a student and a fan at Duke. The applause for J.J. and the genuine love in the building was special, and it reminded me why I sleep outside in a tent so I can go to all of these games. Yeah, it's sappy, but it's true.

More about the game/matchups/whether or not anyone on campus actually thinks Duke can beat almighty Carolina tomorrow.

Friday, February 2, 2007

Why Duke-Carolina matters and why (some) Duke kids are dorks

I'll start with a story:

There is a program at Duke and UNC called the Robertson Scholars Program. Basically, it's a scholarship program that tries to "foster collaboration between Duke and UNC-Chapel Hill" (that's from the official website). Anyway, in practice it means that the students that have the scholarship switch places during the second semester of their sophomore years--Duke kids live at UNC for a semester, and UNC kids spend the semester at Duke. Of course, the Duke-Carolina basketball game takes place during second semester. So last year, the group of UNC students who were living at Duke went to the Duke-Carolina game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. They wore Duke clothes to get into the game; but once they were inside, they took off their Duke sweatshirts to reveal UNC apparel. When Duke wound up losing that game, the Carolina kids got to cheer and people were generally upset.

So this year, our student government decided that such an atrocity wouldn't happen again. They passed a new rule saying that Robertson Scholars from UNC were no longer welcome at the Duke-Carolina game, adding a few "Go to Hell, Carolina"s for good measure. Then, the student body president led the Senate in chanting, "Our house! Our house!" I'm not even kidding.

I tell this story because I think it demonstrates two things:

  1. The Duke-Carolina game is HUGE on this campus.
  2. A lot of kids at Duke are giant dorks.
If I'm going to tell you what it's like to be on the Duke campus in the week leading up to the Duke-Carolina game, you're going to have to remember those things.


I'm probably also going to have to explain Krzyzewskiville.

When Dick Vitale says "The Cameron Crazies have been camping out for months to see this game, baby!" it's kind of misleading. We do live in tents to go to the game, and you do have to tent (yes, we use it like a verb) to get into Duke-Carolina. But it's not like everyone in there has slept outside for over a month straight. Only some of the 12 members of a tenting group have to sleep outside every night. Basically, there are two levels of tenting: Blue Tenting and White Tenting.

Blue Tenting is for the most hardcore fans (cough, crazy, cough, cough). Those kids have been outside since before Winter Break ended January 10th. The first tent actually started waiting December 17th (which was, not coincidentally, the last day of finals last semester). The Blue Tenters are the ones you'll see in the center of the front few rows on TV. From the day they started until January 29th, eight of the 12 members of these tents had to sleep outside every night (which means that these psychos slept in a tent two out of every three nights). During the day, only one of the 12 had to be there.

White Tenting is for kids that like basketball, but don't like sleeping outside in a swamp. It doesn't start until about a week before the game (January 29th this year) and only two of 12 tent members have to sleep outside every night (with one of them there during the day). During both Blue and White Tenting, Line Monitors have periodic checks to make sure that each tent has enough people waiting in it. If a tent doesn't have enough people at two checks, they get bumped to the back of the line. What's crazy is that K-ville started in the '80s when a few kids passed out drunk on the lawn in front of Cameron the night before the game.

The weekend before the game (or the weekend of the game, if it's a Saturday or Sunday game) is designated for personal checks. Personal checks are, aside from the game, the most fun part of the Duke-Carolina basketball game experience. During personal checks, each tenter, individually has to make three of five checks spread over two nights. So all of the tenters have to be there, and everyone on campus makes an appearance. It's like a giant tailgate party--beer pong, the occasional barbecue, Busch Light and 40s. When the game is in March, the weather is usually great, so it's even more fun. Personal checks are tonight and Saturday night, when it's supposed to be kind of cold, so we'll see how they go this year.

If all this sounds complex, I should tell you that it's basically a summary. There's a four and a half page policy that covers everything you need to know about getting into Duke basketball games.

Like I said, kids at Duke are giant dorks.

About This Blog

This blog is part of XM Sports Nation's Total Access coverage of the UNC-Duke game. XM Sports Nation, XM 144 will be broadcasting live from Duke beginning Wed at 6am. You can go t0 http://www.xmradio.com/onxm/features/unc-duke.xmc for more information.